[Guide]Stat Growth rates

If you are stuck in the Dunan Unification Wars; or wish for more details on the gameplay systems, this is the place.
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Re: [Guide]Stat Growth rates

Postby ninjaluc79 » Sat Nov 07, 2015 1:05 am

Suikoden 2 Stat Growth Rates

Notes:
- Numbers in parentheses in the Level X-Y lines denote chance in 256 to gain higher stat
- Percentages after the numbers in the Level X-Y lines denote chance in 100% to gain higher stat
- Numbers in parentheses in the Stat Range line denotes average stat at level 99 rounded off to the nearest multiple of 5.
- No character stats use Stat Growths 13 and 15, which give out garbage values when used.

Stat Growth 0
Level 1: 10
Level 2-19: 0-1 (242, 95%)
Level 20-59: 0-1 (172, 67%)
Level 60-99: 0-1 (98, 38%)
Stat Range: 10 - 108 (70)

Stat Growth 1
Level 1: 11
Level 2-19: 1-2 (80, 31%)
Level 20-59: 0-1 (224, 88%)
Level 60-99: 0-1 (124, 48%)
Stat Range: 29 - 127 (90)

Stat Growth 2
Level 1: 11
Level 2-19: 1-2 (175, 68%)
Level 20-59: 1-2 (32, 13%)
Level 60-99: 0-1 (144, 56%)
Stat Range: 69 - 167 (110)

Stat Growth 3
Level 1: 12
Level 2-19: 2-3 (13, 5%)
Level 20-59: 1-2 (108, 42%)
Level 60-99: 0-1 (144, 56%)
Stat Range: 88 - 186 (130)

Stat Growth 4
Level 1: 12

Level 2-19: 2-3 (134, 52%)
Level 20-59: 1-2 (179, 70%)
Level 60-99: 0-1 (144, 56%)
Stat Range: 88 - 186 (150)

Stat Growth 5
Level 1: 13
Level 2-19: 2-3 (229, 89%)
Level 20-59: 1-2 (243, 95%)
Level 60-99: 0-1 (157, 61%)
Stat Range: 89 - 187 (170)

Stat Growth 6
Level 1: 13
Level 2-19: 3-4 (67, 26%)
Level 20-59: 2-3 (51, 20%)
Level 60-99: 0-1 (177, 89%)
Stat Range: 147 - 245 (185)

Stat Growth 7
Level 1: 14

Level 2-19: 3-4 (202, 79%)
Level 20-59: 2-3 (102, 40%)
Level 60-99: 0-1 (216, 84%)
Stat Range: 148 - 246 (215)

Stat Growth 8
Level 1: 14

Level 2-19: 4-5 (94, 37%)
Level 20-59: 2-3 (160, 63%)
Level 60-99: 0-1 (249, 97%)
Stat Range: 166 - 255 (240)

Stat Growth 9
Level 1: 14

Level 2-14: 5-6 (146, 57%)
Level 15-59: 1-2 (56, 22%)
Level 60-99: 0-1 (164, 64%)
Stat Range: 124 - 222 (165)

Stat Growth 10
Level 1: 14

Level 2-14: 6-7 (146, 57%)
Level 15-59: 1-2 (164, 64%)
Level 60-99: 0-1 (196, 77%)
Stat Range: 137 - 235 (205)

Stat Growth 11
Level 1: 13

Level 2-19: 2-3 (26, 10%)
Level 15-59: 1-2 (224, 88%)
Level 60-99: 1-2 (203, 79%)
Stat Range: 129 - 227 (195)

Stat Growth 12
Level 1: 13

Level 2-19: 2-3 (202, 79%)
Level 20-59: 2-3 (96, 38%)
Level 60-99: 1-2 (236, 92%)
Stat Range: 169 - 255 (235)

Stat Growth 14
Level 1: 10

Level 2-14: 0-1 (94, 37%)
Level 15-59: 0-1 (83, 32%)
Level 60-79: 0-1 (256, 100%)
Level 80-99: 0-1 (45, 18%)
Stat Range: 10 - 108 (50)
Last edited by ninjaluc79 on Fri Oct 21, 2016 1:20 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: [Guide]Stat Growth rates

Postby ninjaluc79 » Sat Nov 07, 2015 3:09 am

Suikoden 2 HP Growth Rates

- Numbers in parentheses in the Level X-Y lines denote chance in 512 to gain highest HP.
- All characters are guaranteed 50% chance of getting the middle HP gain.
- Percentages after the numbers in the Level X-Y lines denote chance in 100% to gain highest HP.
- Numbers in parentheses in the HP Range line denotes average HP at level 99 rounded off to the nearest multiple of 25.
- No characters use HP Growths 9, 10, 11, and 12. These will be posted upon request.

HP Growth 0
Level 1: 10
Level 2-19: 3-5 (67, 13%)
Level 20-59: 5-7 (192, 38%)
Level 60-99: 3-5 (216, 42%)
HP Range: 384 - 580 (500)

HP Growth 1
Level 1: 13
Level 2-19: 4-6 (121, 24%)
Level 20-59: 6-8 (96, 19%)
Level 60-99: 3-5 (216, 42%)
HP Range: 445 - 641 (550)

HP Growth 2
Level 1: 13
Level 2-19: 5-7 (161, 31%)
Level 20-59: 7-9 (64, 13%)
Level 60-99: 4-6 (91, 18%)
HP Range: 543 - 739 (625)

HP Growth 3
Level 1: 16
Level 2-19: 7-9 (13, 3%)
Level 20-59: 8-9 (256, 50%)
Level 60-99: 4-6 (157, 31%)
HP Range: 622 - 778 (700)

HP Growth 4
Level 1: 20

Level 2-19: 7-9 (229, 45%)
Level 20-59: 9-10 (256, 50%)
Level 60-99: 4-6 (91, 18%)
HP Range: 666 - 822 (750)

HP Growth 5
Level 1: 24
Level 2-19: 8-10 (188, 37%)
Level 20-59: 10-12 (64, 13%)
Level 60-99: 4-6 (91, 18%)
HP Range: 728 - 924 (825)

HP Growth 6
Level 1: 26
Level 2-19: 10-12 (53, 10%)
Level 20-59: 11-12 (256, 50%)
Level 60-99: 4-6 (91, 18%)
HP Range: 806 - 962 (875)

HP Growth 7
Level 1: 28

Level 2-19: 11-13 (175, 34%)
Level 20-59: 11-13 (192, 38%)
Level 60-99: 4-6 (157, 31%)
HP Range: 826 - 1022 (950)

HP Growth 8
Level 1: 30

Level 2-19: 13-15 (40, 8%)
Level 20-59: 13-14 (256, 50%)
Level 60-99: 4-6 (223, 44%)
Stat Range: 944 - 1100 (999)

HP Growth 13
Level 1: 50

Level 2-19: 18-20 (107, 21%)
Level 20-59: 8-9 (256, 50%)
Level 60-99: 3-5 (85, 17%)
Stat Range: 814 - 970 (875)

HP Growth 14
Level 1: 6

Level 2-19: 7-9 (13, 3%)
Level 20-59: 3-5 (192, 38%)
Level 60-99: 16-18 (236, 46%)
Stat Range: 892 - 1088 (999)

HP Growth 15
Level 1: 70

Level 2-19: 22-24 (161, 31%)
Level 20-59: 8-10 (192, 38%)
Level 60-99: 2-4 (144, 28%)
Stat Range: 866 - 1062 (999)
Last edited by ninjaluc79 on Thu Oct 20, 2016 1:46 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: [Guide]Stat Growth rates

Postby ninjaluc79 » Sat Nov 07, 2015 10:31 am

Is it possible to hack the levels when rune slots open for all characters?

If so, I think we can make it so that rune slots open based on the average MAG stat for each character instead of fixed levels.

For example, we can have 2 rune slots for 1-slotted Warrior-type characters like Georg and Pesmerga so they can use the famous DB/DS rune combo, while 2-slotted Mage-types like Tengaar can have up to 3 so they can use as many magic runes as they can.

Sheena and Killey are intended to be Warrior-Mage hybrids IMO but I would remove their head rune slots to prevent them from being overpowered. Same with Hai Yo. 2 rune slots are good enough for physical attackers, even Warrior-Mage hybrids. Reserve the head rune slots for the dedicated magicians.
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Re: [Guide]Stat Growth rates

Postby Pyriel » Sat Nov 07, 2015 1:05 pm

  • It is possible to hack the levels. I believe I described the data structure in my first post. If you want to lock a slot forever, set the required level higher than 99. However, the default behavior is based purely on level.
  • The unlock levels don't set flags in the data. What that means is that every Rune Shop, equipment screen, status menu, and battle menu compares current level to unlock level to see if you can do anything with that slot. Altering that behavior means modifying all those different aspects of the game.
  • Reserving the head slot couldn't be done universally. Some human characters only get one of the hand slots while the head slot eventually opens up or is always available, and several of the beasts start with the head slot open and some of them only ever receive a head slot. Konami appears to have regarded slot availability as more a quirk of characters' traits, probably pure morphology in the case of the beasts, rather than some rigid hierarchy where any idiot can have a right-hand rune, but it takes talent to have one on the left-hand, and pure mastery to put one on your head.

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Re: [Guide]Stat Growth rates

Postby ninjaluc79 » Sun Nov 08, 2015 1:34 am

Now that you mention it, it's just that I would like to make Shin and Genshu more useful by giving them one more slot, because pretty much the only reason nobody uses them is because they don't have any free rune slots. Otherwise, people would really like to augment their command runes with Double-Strike for maximum usefulness.
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Re: [Guide]Stat Growth rates

Postby Dhyerwolf » Sun Dec 06, 2015 3:45 pm

Excellent work Pyriel and Ninjaluc79. I have a few questions (if you are still working on this). I notice that for the non-HP growth rates, there are a total of 14 growth rates, but the old stat growth chart on the website only has 11 growth rates. Also, I notice that the growth rate for A and E+ on the old chart isn't even reflected on this chart at all.

I guess it boils down to this:
Which growth rate is Georg's Magic and Mdef (the only E+s)?
Which growth rate is Viktor's Attack (the only A)?
What uses growth rates for #9-#14?
Just to note, for stat growth 11, I'm assuming that it's L2-19 and 20-59 for the growth splits (the notes say both 2-19 and 15-59 in one post)

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Re: [Guide]Stat Growth rates

Postby Pyriel » Sun Dec 06, 2015 4:32 pm

The spreadsheet I posted on the second page has them all. Georg's Magic and Mdef are the 0 rate. I forget what Viktor's attack was, one of the odd, infrequently used high values like B or D. If I remember right, that growth rate is exclusive to him, and only for attack. There are several like that, e.g., one of the squids has growth rates that are only applied to it.

Stat growth 11 is 2-3 up to level 19 and then 1-2 thereafter, but the chance of the higher value also decreases at level 60 without changing the 1-2 range.

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Re: [Guide]Stat Growth rates

Postby Omnigamer » Sun Dec 06, 2015 9:19 pm

I made a couple of small programs for calculating raw stat probabilities for each growth rank. This was mainly for my own planning purposes, but if there's enough interest I can try porting it into an applet somewhere?

My programs do two main things:
-Provide a histogram distribution of the stat for a particular level and rank
-Provide the raw probability that the stat will be between a certain range at a particular level and rank

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Re: [Guide]Stat Growth rates

Postby ninjaluc79 » Mon Dec 07, 2015 1:42 am

Viktor's STR stat uses Stat 10 (hex 0A), while Chuchara's STR uses Stat 14 (hex 0E). Asides those, there's pretty much no one who uses the oddball stat growth rates, unless you count Gremio from Suikoden 1, whose STR stat uses Stat 12 (hex 0C) IIRC, since the first two games (and perhaps S3 and S4 too) basically use the same stats engine.

Omnigamer wrote:I made a couple of small programs for calculating raw stat probabilities for each growth rank. This was mainly for my own planning purposes, but if there's enough interest I can try porting it into an applet somewhere?

My programs do two main things:
-Provide a histogram distribution of the stat for a particular level and rank
-Provide the raw probability that the stat will be between a certain range at a particular level and rank


This would be very useful for determining at which level every character gets a particular MP level, especially for setting up low-MAG characters with high affinities to some specific elements as magicians, both against Luca Blight (though you would rather use high-MAG characters for him) and the final dungeon.

Some examples include Meg, Millie, and Tomo.

Meg only has 03 MAG but has the highest affinities to both Lightning (A) and Wind (A).

Millie only has 04 MAG but she joins Mazus as the only characters with the highest affinities to two of the best offensive runes in the game: Fire (A) and Lightning (A), when even Luc, considered THE best magician in the game, only has B in both. Eat your heart out, bearer of the True Wind Rune.

Tomo only has 04 MAG and okay affinities to everything else, but only she and Luc have the highest affinity to Earth (A).
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Re: [Guide]Stat Growth rates

Postby ninjaluc79 » Thu Oct 20, 2016 1:54 am

Bumped for posterity.

Anyone knows how to calculate the probability that a certain character's stat reaches a certain number at a certain level?

I need a working formula to calculate the probability of characters reaching a certain amount of MAG and MP at different parts of the game (mostly the Luca Blight battle, the final dungeon, and level 99).
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Re: [Guide]Stat Growth rates

Postby Omnigamer » Thu Oct 20, 2016 10:31 am

I have scripts for doing exactly that, although they are based in MATLAB. I thought about making a stand-alone for it, but never quite got to it. The actual formula portion is tricky since you're dealing with mixed distributions, but I handled it by pre-calculating about 10,000 occurrences and then sampling the end rates.

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Re: [Guide]Stat Growth rates

Postby STARWIN » Thu Oct 20, 2016 11:01 am

My initial idea for such would be something like the following sketch in C:

Code: Select all

double result[1000]; // zero initialize if not
int growth=

void probMassFrom(double mass, int value, int level)
{
  if (level==1)
  {
    result[value]+=mass;
  }
  else
  {
    probMassFrom(mass*lowerprob(growth,level)/256,value+gain(growth,level),level-1);
    probMassFrom(mass*(256-lowerprob(growth,level))/256,value+gain(growth,level)+1,level-1);
  }
}


lowerprob gives the x/256 of getting the lower gain
gain gives the lower stat gain at that level

call it like probMassFrom(1,0,99); from main and dump the result array into a file (or print it and redirect output to file)
each array slot represents a stat value and the content its probability
value should actually be the starting stat at level 1, instead of 0, to be accurate..

this assumes everyone starts at level 1 but if this is like suiko 1, they effectively do

edit: this 2^n scaling gets too tough for the cpu around n=25, so this brute force is no go..
Last edited by STARWIN on Thu Oct 20, 2016 1:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: [Guide]Stat Growth rates

Postby Omnigamer » Thu Oct 20, 2016 12:57 pm

For the game's purposes, everybody does start at Level 1. At level 1, their stats are exactly equal to the base for their growth rates. The progression from 1->2 is the first time their growth rate gets added in.

Also, for anybody trying to get to an actual formula, the final stat values follow a semi-normal distribution for each "Tier" in the growth rate. To get the raw probability, you'd have to combine all 3 distributions. You can approximate them as a normal distribution, with the mean = base+((level-offset)*(low_val + prob_high), and std = sqrt((level-offset)*prob_high*(1-prob_high)) .

base = base bonus. Initial bonus for tier 1 (levels 1-19), 0 for other tiers
offset = offset of levels before distribution starts. 1 For Tier 1, 19 for Tier 2, 59 for Tier 3
low_val = the lower value you might get on a levelup.
prob_high = the probability of getting a higher value on a levelup.
Last edited by Omnigamer on Fri Oct 21, 2016 10:52 am, edited 3 times in total.

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Re: [Guide]Stat Growth rates

Postby STARWIN » Thu Oct 20, 2016 1:45 pm

this is pretty fun, here is sketch #2 in C that isn't brute force:

Code: Select all

double result[1030]; // zero initialize if not
int growth=9;
int targetlevel=99;
int initialstat=0;

double lowerprob(int growth,int level)
{
  // fill in
}

int gain(int growth,int level)
{
  // fill in
}

int main()
{
  result[initialstat]=1;
  int level=1;
  while (level<targetlevel)
  {
    level++;
    int i=999;
    while (i>-1)
    {
      double oldmass=result[i];
      result[i]=0;
      result[i+gain(growth,level)]+=oldmass*lowerprob(growth,level)/256;
      result[i+gain(growth,level)+1]+=oldmass*(256-lowerprob(growth,level))/256;
      i--;
    }
  }
  return 0;
}

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Re: [Guide]Stat Growth rates

Postby ninjaluc79 » Thu Oct 20, 2016 8:07 pm

Omnigamer wrote:For the game's purposes, everybody does start at Level 1. At level 1, their stats are exactly equal to the base for their growth rates. The progression from 1->2 is the first time their growth rate gets added in.

Also, for anybody trying to get to an actual formula, the final stat values follow a Rice distribution for each "Tier" in the growth rate. To get the raw probability, you'd have to combine all 3 distributions. For any given distribution, the mean = base+((level-offset)*(low_val + prob_high), and std is approximated as sqrt((level-offset)*prob_high*(1-prob_high)) .

base = base bonus. Initial bonus for tier 1 (levels 1-19), 0 for other tiers
offset = offset of levels before distribution starts. 1 For Tier 1, 19 for Tier 2, 59 for Tier 3
low_val = the lower value you might get on a levelup.
prob_high = the probability of getting a higher value on a levelup.

Of course, this still means you need to have a way to calculate the probability density function given these parameters, which is not trivial for the distribution. In most cases you're still better off brute-forcing in some manner than trying to calculate the raw probability.


Say, for example, for Riou at 05 MAG (~170 average @ lv 99):

1. I want him to reach 60 MAG at lv 15;
2. I want him to reach 100 MAG at lv 35; and
3. I want him to reach 175 MAG (9/7/4/2 MP) at level 99.

How would these be calculated, and what do you mean by combining all three probabilities, should I add them or multiply them? I don't quite follow.

EDIT: Never mind, I think I already got it, but I'm pretty sure this method is not accurate.

Normal distribution with the mean and standard deviation formulas you have given should probably suffice. To simplify calculations, I simply subtracted the average stat for each tier at a certain level from the target stat at a certain level and placed the mean and standard deviation for a certain level range (2-19, 20-59, 60-99) in a normal distribution.

So for example, with Riou at 05 MAG:

60 MAG at lv 15 with the Stat Stone Trick

The reason for this is for Riou to get the Level 3 Bright Shield spell Battle Oath (heal + berserk to all allies) as early as the Sindar Ruins, allowing for a quicker work on the Double-Headed Snake with a full physical party, although the Piercing One spell from the Black Sword Rune and the Dancing Flames from the Fire Rune are probably enough to finish him off, so there's no real need to get Battle Oath as early as level 15 or so.

However, the only characters with high affinities to Fire asides Jowy (B affinity, but he has the Black Sword Rune, and you will probably pick Piercing One spell over Dancing Flames) at this point of the game are Millie and Zamza (both A), and there is a high chance you will not get any of them and instead get physical attackers like Shiro, Kinnison, Mukumuku, Gengen, and Rikimaru, you will probably need to get Battle Oath just in case you get stuck with Jowy as the only mage in the Sindar Ruins party.

IIRC you can get the Stone of Magic from the Sindar Ruins, apply it on Riou, kill off the entire party without saving first, then save after getting one level up to obtain the MP gain from getting to a MAG benchmark.

Riou's MAG growth per level at the 2-19 range is 2-3, with 229/256 chance of getting the higher value. The normal distribution is set at mean = 53 and stdev = 1.19. Based on the normal distribution calculator below, however, it is impossible to get 60 MAG at Level 15 without a stat stone. Applying a Stone of Magic on Riou once with a +3 MAG bonus raises the probability to only 0.4%. Another application with a +3 MAG bonus (lol) raises the probability to 20%, and ANOTHER application (lmao) finally raises it to 95.35%.

http://www.mathportal.org/calculators/s ... ulator.php

Passing through each level without applying a Stone of Magic:

Level 16 - 0.06% chance to 60 MAG (need +6 MAG bonus from the Stone to increase chance of getting a lv3 spell at level up)
Level 17 - 21.48% chance to 60 MAG (need +3 MAG bonus to increase chance of getting a lv3 spell at level up)
Level 18 - 93.82% chance to 60 MAG

Therefore, Riou's best chance of getting a Lv3 spell is at Level 18 without a Stone of Magic. Therefore, you need to apply as many Stat Stones on Riou as you can bear to get a lv3 spell for Bright Shield as early as the Sindar Ruins to help a full physical party with Jowy as the only mage in the party.

DOUBLE EDIT:

http://www.danielsoper.com/statcalc/cal ... aspx?id=54

This probability density function calculator, however, has slightly different probability values at each level:

Level 16 - 0.11%
Level 17 - 23.31%
Level 18 - 90.91%

What are your thoughts about this?
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