I'm sorry to post in such an old thread, but I might have some interesting information about drop patterns for the Celadon Urn.
I started another perfect run a few days ago (japanese PSX version) and decided that, this time, I would try and get not one but six Celadon (and Octopus) Urns. I don't know if this will matter, but I'll detail pretty much everything I did from the start of the game.
First, I got Ted and started leveling up outside Gregminster until both my characters reached level 10-11. Then, I used the Marco trick to get around 200k. That done, I went to Sarady and got the Prosperity Rune (along with only the Clone Rune and 1000 bits from the chests in Mt. Tigerwolf).
After that, I went on with the story until Ted would leave the party, gearing and sharpening everyone up before going to Magician's Island. To avoid inventory issues, I decided I would hunt for the urns before losing Pahn, so I could stick them in his.
My first goal was to get an early BonBon battle going out on the World Map. I noticed the pattern changed depending on the number of steps I would take in Gregminster, so I went and saved in Rockland because you only have to go straight down to leave the town after loading. Leaving the town, I would get, after a little while, a Wild Boar/Crow/Crow battle (that I would "let go") and then a three BonBons battle. Almost each time I loaded and left the city going straight down, I would get those two battles.
So I started experimenting, using different battle commands in the BonBon battle until I got bored, which was pretty fast. I kinda gave up and decided I would just "Let go" everything except BonBon ("Free Will") until I got an antique and see if, by saving and loading at Rockland after that, I would end up getting another in the same battle.
After half an hour, I got a Failure Urn, went and saved in Rockland, loaded up and resumed. Of course, my second battle was against those three BonBons, and for some reason, I decided to try another combinaison : I attacked with Tir, defended with Gremio, attacked with Pahn and used the level 1 fire spell with Cleo (all on the first BonBon from the list). I got a Celadon Urn.
I quickly went back to Rockland and saved. After loading up, I did the same and got another Celadon Urn. After I got three, I was out of level 1 MP and my inventories were almost full. So I tried and cleared them up before resting and saving at Rockland, thinking doing those actions would change the pattern. It didn't. At the moment, I have seven Celadon Urns in my inventories.
I don't know if this will be anything new or useful to people trying to hunt for those urns, but I thought it would be interesting to share my experience. I remember someone saying the RNG couldn't be manipulated in World Map battles, and I guess this proves it is possible.
I'll be happy to answer questions, if there are any.
I also apologize for the clumsy english, it is not my native language.
EDIT: I did some more testing and I must say this is very interesting. I attached an spreadsheet to the post so you can see for yourselves. Maybe someone will be able to deduce some general rule from all this.
A few complementary notes, though:
- attack order is always Cleo/Tir/Gremio/Pahn.
- none of them ever missed and each attack would kill the opponent (obviously, Firestorm would kill everyone of them).
- it didn't matter if I chose, say, "Attack" then cancel to choose another option, as long as the final option was the one on the spreadsheet.
- I would always target the first BonBon on the list with everyone; I tried, I think twice, to change the order and the results were the same.
I'm keeping my save on another memory card, in case someone wants me to try something different. Since I got all the urns I wanted, I won't be doing more testing unless asked to.
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