Possible Pattern for A Celadon Urn

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Possible Pattern for A Celadon Urn

Postby gogen25 » Wed Oct 08, 2008 6:18 pm

After spending hours looking for a celadon urn outside of Gregminster (with only Tir and Ted in the party) I began to notice that enemies appeared in certain patterns. After exiting Gregminster, I encountered a Red Army Ant (which I let go) and then a BonBon (which I slew). Within the first ten fights (letting all enemies go except fights with BonBons) I had acquired two ? pot items. I continued this pattern (never once stepping foot in Gregminster, since that would reset and switch the pattern) until I had four ? pot items in my inventory, low and behold, one was a Celadon Urn (the others were Octopus Urns). Following this pattern took me about an hour. I assume that if one were to enter and exit Gregminster, checking the battles until the above pattern appeared (never resetting the game during this time!), then one might be able to find a Celadon Urn after they acquired four ? Pot items while following this pattern. Just a theory.

* Part of this idea stems from the supposed "random" factor in this game.

Example 1: If you save the game and start a cup game with the boy in Rockland the pattern is supposed to be random. However if you place the 1,000 bit bet and the winning cup is the one on the right (reset the game otherwise), then the next winners (as long as you continue to bet 1,000 bits only) will be the middle cup, the left cup, the right cup, the left cup, the middle cup, the right cup, the right cup, and the right cup. (this always worked for me)

Example 2: If you save, then access the world map and fight, then reset the game (without saving), access the world map and fight again, the enemies should appear in the same pattern as the did prior to your reset (dropping the same items as well)

This is all merely theory, but I felt that I should post it for the sake of those who hate looking for a Celadon Urn the legitimate way.

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Re: Possible Pattern for A Celadon Urn

Postby KFCrispy » Thu Oct 09, 2008 10:49 am

your first example is due to the game only using a fixed pattern for Marco; it does not attempt to randomize Marco's games until later when you can recruit him.

the rest of your ideas is related to the fact that someone can record the input for a game in an emulator for early games and outcomes will still come out the same way. randomness generally is based on timing and a lot more things than you'd expect are already predetermined at some point.

for instance, using save and reload states, i did notice how the order of enemies you fight do not change, and it's actually pre-determined how many steps you will take before the next encounter.
HOWEVER, drops are definitely much more random and are determined when you defeat an enemy or at the end of battle. i can reload my save state, fight the same exact enemy after a fixed number of steps taken, use the same command (like Auto), and then the actual damage and item drops will still differ. i'm sure if you can reproduce everything with the exact same *timing*, the outcome will not change, but since i manually play the game after each reload, the timing will be slightly different and thus the outcomes that are randomized at those moments will differ.

it could be that there is a limited amount of enemy patterns the game chooses from, but like i said, the drops will still be very random.

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Re: Possible Pattern for A Celadon Urn

Postby gogen25 » Thu Oct 09, 2008 12:51 pm

I see. Just so you know, I don't use emulators. I have one of the origional, mass produced, copies of the game (I bought it for a used price and in perfect condition) :)

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Re: Possible Pattern for A Celadon Urn

Postby Shullen » Fri Mar 09, 2012 1:40 pm

I am playing this without an emulator as well and have spent a few hours trying to decipher game patterns in order to acquire a celadon urn. What I would do is walk outside of a town, encounter an enemy, and then walk back into town and save it if it wasn't the enemy I wanted (BonBon) repeating the process afterward. The first time I did this, I encountered 3 mosquitoes and 1 red soldier ant which I killed with "free will". I received medicine. On my way back to the town, I encountered the same enemy again which I killed the same way (with free will) and received nothing. I reset the game (without saving after both battles) and encountered the same first enemy formation again in the exact same spot (dropping medicine again); however, when I encountered the second formation (which was the same as well: 3 mosquitoes and 1 red soldier ant) I changed my attack from "free will" to having Cleo use her fire rune which killed all enemies instantly and afterward I received a holy crystal. Intrigued, I loaded my game up again (a total of 10 times) and received the exact same formation of enemies, in the exact same spots, with the exact same rewards: medicine for the first "free will" battle and a holy crystal after the second battle IF I used Cleo's mass fire attack (rather than "free will"). So I began my quest to save after every battle until I acquired BonBon as my first encounter upon leaving town. Many "first battles" later, I ran into one BonBon upon leaving Lenankamp. I ran into this particular battle 22 out of the next 24 times with it appearing in different spots. I tried all sorts of attack commands and combinations over these 22 battles (free will, hero attacking only, cleo attacking only, unite attack, fire rune, etc.), yet all 22 times, the BonBon dropped nothing. It may have to due with where the BonBon appeared on the map (as previously stated, it varied between 3-5 spots), but I wasn't about to try and fight every which way I could 10-20 times in each 3-5 spots! :shock: Anyway, I just thought my findings may prove interesting. As far as my "urn quest", I have 2 celadon urns (one obtained while not farming for one as I was happy with just my one wanting one of every item for a "perfect game", not to mention having 6 in your bath doesn't have a special effect :shock: ), 5 octopus urns, and 4 failure urns all after around 3-4 hours of play.

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Re: Possible Pattern for A Celadon Urn

Postby Pesmerga VS. Yuber » Sat Mar 10, 2012 11:33 am

It's the number of steps that count when encountering a monster, so it really doesn't matter where you encounter them, but after how many steps. I think the dropping process has been mentioned here previously.
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Re: Possible Pattern for A Celadon Urn

Postby Rhad » Sun Jul 31, 2016 6:39 am

I'm sorry to post in such an old thread, but I might have some interesting information about drop patterns for the Celadon Urn.

I started another perfect run a few days ago (japanese PSX version) and decided that, this time, I would try and get not one but six Celadon (and Octopus) Urns. I don't know if this will matter, but I'll detail pretty much everything I did from the start of the game.

First, I got Ted and started leveling up outside Gregminster until both my characters reached level 10-11. Then, I used the Marco trick to get around 200k. That done, I went to Sarady and got the Prosperity Rune (along with only the Clone Rune and 1000 bits from the chests in Mt. Tigerwolf).
After that, I went on with the story until Ted would leave the party, gearing and sharpening everyone up before going to Magician's Island. To avoid inventory issues, I decided I would hunt for the urns before losing Pahn, so I could stick them in his.

My first goal was to get an early BonBon battle going out on the World Map. I noticed the pattern changed depending on the number of steps I would take in Gregminster, so I went and saved in Rockland because you only have to go straight down to leave the town after loading. Leaving the town, I would get, after a little while, a Wild Boar/Crow/Crow battle (that I would "let go") and then a three BonBons battle. Almost each time I loaded and left the city going straight down, I would get those two battles.
So I started experimenting, using different battle commands in the BonBon battle until I got bored, which was pretty fast. I kinda gave up and decided I would just "Let go" everything except BonBon ("Free Will") until I got an antique and see if, by saving and loading at Rockland after that, I would end up getting another in the same battle.
After half an hour, I got a Failure Urn, went and saved in Rockland, loaded up and resumed. Of course, my second battle was against those three BonBons, and for some reason, I decided to try another combinaison : I attacked with Tir, defended with Gremio, attacked with Pahn and used the level 1 fire spell with Cleo (all on the first BonBon from the list). I got a Celadon Urn.
I quickly went back to Rockland and saved. After loading up, I did the same and got another Celadon Urn. After I got three, I was out of level 1 MP and my inventories were almost full. So I tried and cleared them up before resting and saving at Rockland, thinking doing those actions would change the pattern. It didn't. At the moment, I have seven Celadon Urns in my inventories.

I don't know if this will be anything new or useful to people trying to hunt for those urns, but I thought it would be interesting to share my experience. I remember someone saying the RNG couldn't be manipulated in World Map battles, and I guess this proves it is possible.

I'll be happy to answer questions, if there are any.

I also apologize for the clumsy english, it is not my native language.

EDIT: I did some more testing and I must say this is very interesting. I attached an spreadsheet to the post so you can see for yourselves. Maybe someone will be able to deduce some general rule from all this.

A few complementary notes, though:
- attack order is always Cleo/Tir/Gremio/Pahn.
- none of them ever missed and each attack would kill the opponent (obviously, Firestorm would kill everyone of them).
- it didn't matter if I chose, say, "Attack" then cancel to choose another option, as long as the final option was the one on the spreadsheet.
- I would always target the first BonBon on the list with everyone; I tried, I think twice, to change the order and the results were the same.

I'm keeping my save on another memory card, in case someone wants me to try something different. Since I got all the urns I wanted, I won't be doing more testing unless asked to.
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Re: Possible Pattern for A Celadon Urn

Postby Z3R01337 » Mon Aug 01, 2016 2:02 am

Hey guys, Suikoden speedrunner here. So for my speedruns I did a ton of research into RNG mechanics and RNG manipulation is definitely possible. I'm pretty beat right now so I'm not gonna go too in-depth, but I can tell you that there are consistent setups to get Celadon Urns and most other drops.

The patterns will however differ depending on what console/version of the game you are playing on. The key is to find a method of setting RNG seed value to the same value everytime. For any console/version a hard reset will always set the RNG to the same value everytime. However, that value will most likely differ for each console/version. For example, on a PSTV a hard reset sets the RNG value to 0x30A82220. On PSTV, starting a game with Marco in Rockland or Warrior's Village also resets the RNG to 0x12 each time. And on PSTV certain War Battles reset the RNG to the same value each time if you have the same amount of characters recruited each time.

After the reset, it just becomes a matter of making sure RNG advances the same way. So in your case, saving and resetting at Rockland was perfect because it ensures that if you just hold down you will always spend the same amount of frames on screens with moving NPCs which means RNG always advances the same way.

Most of this stuff is kind of tricky to explain though so I'm just gonna dump a bunch of links to stuff I have about these mechanics.

RNG Mechanics

Random Technical Stuff

Project I'm working on that calculates RNG-based events. README has a ton of info about how RNG-based events are calculated. Some other info can be found in the source code.

RNG Calculator project. Still a very much WIP.

My latest any% WR. Has a ton of RNG manipulation throughout the whole run. Most relevant to the current topic are the first 5 minutes where I manipulate Celadon Urn and Holy Rune drops.

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